Thursday, January 5, 2012

Wishes for the new year

As the new year starts, I have many wishes for financial literacy. I list the top three below:

Wish #1. I hope a leader to champion the cause of financial literacy will emerge and help give this topic the national and international attention it deserves. Michelle Obama has been the celebrity behind obesity and has helped not just raise attention around this important topic but also push for relevant programs in schools. There is a striking similarity between obesity and financial illiteracy. According to statistics, one third of the population is obese. Well, the same (and even worse) figures can be cited for financial illiteracy; about half of the population does not know the abc’s of finance and economics. There are severe costs associated with obesity, and there are equally severe costs of financial illiteracy (if in doubt, check the figures resulting from the financial crisis). A lot of initiatives have been undertaken at the national level to address obesity, from a revised food pyramid to limiting the amount of junk food available in cafeterias and vending machines. I may be one of five people in the country to know about the official web site offering financial information (do you want to guess which one it is?). Other celebrities have helped raise awareness of a variety of national and global problems. For example, Al Gore increased the attention on the environment and global warming. While I do not think the Artic will melt in the next few years (if I am wrong, please let me know), we are discussing or taking a lot of measures to address this long-term problem. On the other hand, the problem of financial illiteracy is urgent and pressing.

I do not have a strong preference about who this leader will be, but it would be good if he/she had a face (institutions are great, but it is hard to compete with Happy Feet). He/she should also be substantially liked by the public—a difficult objective in these days of falling financial geniuses, but there are many celebrities that people love. A sports celebrity would be great (Who does not like sports? Raise your hand!), in light of the similarity between success in sports and success with financial matters: it takes dedication, practice, and discipline!

Wish #2. I hope some BIG initiatives will emerge for financial literacy. As I have lamented in previous posts, a lot of the discussion about financial literacy has focused on its cost (as if we should or could offer it for free), and many initiatives to promote financial literacy are limited in scope and objectives. But this is a global problem that is becoming more and more pressing by the day (most of the political leaders in Europe have been ousted as a result of the sweeping financial crisis). This situation needs some big initiatives. How about a national campaign, or even a global initiative on financial literacy? How about a museum for financial literacy? We have declared April financial literacy month, so how about doing something concrete and big during that month (March or October are good for me too; I am not fussy about which month it occurs) that has lasting effects?

Wish #3. I hope the new year will see financial literacy in the schools; if not in the United States, then at least in a sizeable number of countries. Financial literacy is an essential tool for anyone who wants to be able to succeed in today’s society, make sound financial decisions, and—ultimately—be a good citizen. The financial crisis has put economic news on the front pages of newspapers almost daily, requiring individuals not just to be abreast of concepts such as deficit, national debt, and interest rate spread but also to evaluate the economic reforms that political leaders are proposing. Moreover, the cost of college education has been increasing at a rate faster than inflation, requiring students and their families to start planning for college as soon as possible, to be savvy about financial aid, and to manage student loans effectively. And young people are required to make one of the most important decisions of their lifetime—whether to invest in higher education—during high school, and they should make it in conjunction with a good understanding of the costs and benefits of that decision.

Perhaps I am only dreaming, but dreams are good. And my fourth wish is that all of you have a happy new year. Be in good financial health!

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

The new financial literacy seminar series

As December comes to an end, I am thinking of some initiatives undertaken this year. One stands out, as it is rather recent and it is in the process of being evaluated to make it even better: our Financial Literacy Seminar Series. Started last October, this is a joint project between the George Washington University School of Business and the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) with the goal of hosting cutting edge research on financial literacy. We invited all individuals and institutions interested in financial literacy in the Washington, DC, area, and because presentations have been taped and posted on the web, everybody who is interested in financial literacy can watch the presentations or read the papers. They are posted on the seminar’s web page: http://business.gwu.edu/flss/.

We had a distinguished group of speakers in the fall term. Our inaugural seminar was given by Olivia Mitchell from the Wharton School, whose talk examined the link between financial literacy and wealth accumulation. Her talk was followed by a panel of policy experts, including Gail Hillebrand from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Karen Dynan from Brookings, and Jason Fichtner from George Mason University (formerly the Deputy Commissioner of SSA). In subsequent seminars, Robert Clark from North Carolina State University presented his work on workplace financial education, a very important topic when looking at financial education for the adult population; Stephan Meier from Columbia Business School examined the link between financial literacy and subprime mortgages, showing that numerical ability is strongly associated with mortgage delinquency and default; Bilal Zia from the World Bank presented an evaluation of financial literacy programs in India; and Jonathan Zinman from Dartmouth College examined household debt and, in particular, credit card debt and the way it could be managed better. Our last speaker was Brigitte Madrian from Harvard University. She reported on some important features of default options, i.e., the fact that when employees are automatically enrolled into pensions, many of them stay enrolled at the default rate, even when that rate is a “bad” one and unlikely to correspond to a rate that the individual would have chosen had he/she made an active choice. Most importantly, the employees who tend to stick to the default are disproportionately those with low income, which is often a proxy for low financial literacy.

Different seminars in the series had different formats. While the majority of talks were given by academics, at times we had a discussant or, as mentioned above, a panel of policy experts. Even without a discussant, our audience had so many experts in this field that there always was a very lively discussion with many questions asked of the speaker. To continue the discussion in a less formal setting, we held a reception after the seminar so that participants could continue the discussion with either the presenter or other attendees (sometimes with the help of a glass of Italian wine). The Dean of the Business School would also stop by the reception to greet the speaker or meet the attendees and to hear how the School could continue to promote financial literacy.

One of the privileges of organizing the seminar series is that I get to meet with the seminar speakers, discuss their paper in depth, hear in more detail their views and their insights as well as learn about their future projects. Another equally important privilege was getting to know and work with a group of researchers from the Federal Reserve Board. They have been a great group to work with: they combine an interest in theoretical and empirical research with a focus on policy; they ask important questions and have very high standards for research. Together, we were unstoppable; we started to work on the series in August and in October we were ready to start.

And speaking of privileges, last June, I had the opportunity to meet with Chairman Bernanke. Sitting in his elegant office at the FRB, I told him about the projects that our teams at the Financial Literacy Center (FLC) were working on and what we were doing to promote financial literacy. He proposed more interaction between the researchers working on financial literacy and the researchers from the Federal Reserve Board and suggested organizing some joint activities. As a result, the Financial Literacy Seminar Series was born, and it benefits from the financial support of the Federal Reserve Board. Because the end of the year is a time for evaluation, I have to say I am very proud of our new Financial Literacy Seminar Series. And I am especially proud of being a student of Ben Bernanke.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Learning from Elsa Fornero

The front page of the Wall Street Journal last Monday, December 5, had three pictures of a woman in tears. That woman is Elsa Fornero, the Welfare Minister in the new “technocratic” government of Italy. The fact that she was in tears was truly remarkable and it deserved to be on the front page of a major business newspaper. This is something new, and there is a lesson to be learned from it.

Elsa Fornero, a professor of Economics at the University of Turin, is an international expert on pensions. In charge of one of the most difficult reforms, i.e., changing the pension system in Italy, she has set out to implement a set of new and severe measures that nobody before her has been able to do, even though the current system is unsustainable.

Reforms might be right, but they are painful, and the fact that they are necessary does not alleviate any of the pain they inflict. Technocrats normally describe necessary reforms as the inevitable medicine that a country has to swallow to get better; the numbers are on their side, and no one had ever shed a tear when reform might mean that someone wouldn’t be able to pay their bills at the end of the month. But not Elsa Fornero. The woman who, for more than forty years, has done the calculations about the pension system in Italy; has shown in many scholarly papers that the Italian pension system is unfair, inefficient, and too expensive; has set up a center to study this topic in the most rigorous way, looking at data both in Italy and in other countries, was there at center stage to announce her reforms. The new Minister, who was appointed for her unique expertise, stopped speaking at the very moment she had to pronounce the word “sacrifice”—and cried.

This is not only a sign of humanity, a recognition that reforms often equal pain, but also an act of humility and of immense courage. It took a woman to attack reform of one of the most difficult and stubborn pension systems. She had one week to do it. She knew what to do and what was necessary. And when she described it, she told it as it is, and she cried.

I hope this is the start of a new phase both for politics and for women. Politicians need to have the skills and good judgment to set countries on sustainable paths and (financially literate) citizens should hold them accountable. And I hope we are done with the “iron lady” and similar clichés about women in command. I highly recommend that other Italian politicians be so bold in their actions as the Fornero reforms, as well as show that they care about the well-being of their fellow citizens. We all can learn from Elsa Fornero to be ourselves; in her case, a woman who cares. When I grow up, I want to be Elsa Fornero.

Monday, October 24, 2011

We are All Blacks!

This has been a busy fall so far with a lot of travelling (I am on my way to Sweden), starting a new financial literacy seminar series (more in future blogs), and keeping up with my newly acquired interests: football and rugby! It has been a season full of exciting games, including the Rugby World Cup, which was held in New Zealand. I am extremely happy to announce that the New Zealand All Blacks are the World Cup champions! I am ecstatic and wish I were in New Zealand to celebrate their victory. What could be sweeter than winning the World Cup when your country is the host and your fans are in the stadium? I can only imagine the explosion of joy in Eden Park in Auckland at the end of the match with France (and the sense of relief as well since the score was so close, I could hardly breath...).

I will celebrate this great victory by writing about New Zealand and the role they have played in the field of financial literacy. Under the leadership of feisty Diana Crossan, the Retirement Commission has done a lot of innovative work on financial literacy. I mentioned in a previous post that they have one of the best national web sites dedicated to improving the financial literacy of the population. They were also one of the first countries to conduct a second national financial literacy survey in order to measure financial knowledge over time and therefore assess their progress in improving financial literacy. They have many programs targeted to specific groups of the population, recognizing that different people have different needs and different economic circumstances. One group of great interest is the Maori, and specific programs have been designed for them as well. While small and without a big budget, the Commission is a mighty group. And to better communicate the focus of their work, they have recently changed their name from Retirement Commission to the Commission for Financial Literacy and Retirement Income. The main lesson here is not to underestimate the power and ingenuity of what one institution—however small—can do for financial literacy. And while New Zealand is a small country, it has been a model to look to for financial literacy.

I have one recommendation for Diana Crossan: go to that talented captain of the All Blacks, Richie McCaw, show him your muscles (figuratively, I mean), and ask the team to support financial literacy. I am sure a lot of New Zealanders would pay attention. In my view, sport and financial literacy go very well together (wink)!

But for now, congratulations to the All Blacks and to New Zealand for being World Champions and hosting the World Cup. Bravi!

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Financial literacy, the Maori, and … rugby

I am just back from Australia and New Zealand and will write first about my trip to New Zealand. I was invited to attend a meeting at the University of Otago with representatives of the Maori population, who have become interested in financial literacy. If you do not know the Maori, they are the indigenous people of New Zealand and represent about 15% of the population today. Their name is derived from “Ma-Uri,” which means “children of Heaven.” Maori comprise many “iwi” (tribes), “hapu” (subtribes), and “whānau” (extended family units). Having originated in Polynesia, they brought with them the rich culture of the region, where song, dance, art, and oratorical skills were significant, especially as there was no written language at that time. On my visit to New Zealand a couple of years ago, I went to Rotorua, a town settled by the Maori on the North Island. This time, I was in Dunedin, on the South Island of New Zealand, home of the Ngāi Tahu. See below a picture of the formal greeting among the Maori.

In one of the papers that is part of an international comparison of financial literacy across countries, which I have edited for a special volume of the Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, a research group in New Zealand headed by Pension Commissioner Diana Crossan documented differences in financial literacy among the new Zealanders of European descent and the Maori population; the Maori tend to know less. However, this is not the case for the Ngāi Tahu, and one explanation offered for this finding is the fact that Ngāi Tahu have promoted a series of programs aimed to increase financial literacy and saving. A description of Whai Rawa, their matched saving initiative, is provided on the web page noted at the end of this post. The meeting at the University of Otago was about trying to measure the effectiveness of the new initiatives and changes in the well-being of this population over time.

It felt special to sit among this group. The meeting opened with the traditional Maori greetings, and much of the discussion and questions were led by one of the Ngāi Tahu representatives. He was just as one would expect a chief to be: charismatic, wise, and pragmatic. His questions to me were remarkably similar to the ones I often hear when I travel around the world: What is the business case for financial education? What works? and How do we know that it works? But there were major differences, too. The Ngāi Tahu’s planning horizon is very long. Their vision is “For us and our children after us” (Mō tātou,ā, mō kā uri ā muri ake nei). They feel strongly about their community and about sustainability of resources over time. I came away with not only a deeply felt respect for such foresight but also admiration for this capacity to lead and look ahead.

You may know about the Maori from the “haka,” or war dance, that the New Zealand rugby team performs before each game (if you have not seen it, you have got to watch the video posted below). I like the haka for many reasons. First, it shows how much the Maori traditions have been embraced by the population in general. Maori or not, every player in the rugby team plays the haka very seriously. Second, one wants to build up energy at the beginning of an important event. Third, it scares the hell out of the opposing team. And this brings me to my next topic: rugby! New Zealand is currently hosting the Rugby World Cup. Their national team is the All Blacks, and I spent a good part of my time in New Zealand watching rugby. The All Blacks are amazing players and I was glued to the TV for hours. On Sunday, I went to the stadium in Dunedin to watch Italy against Ireland. We (Italy) did not win, but we put up a good fight against the Irish; it was a good game. On the first leg of my trip back to the U.S. on Air New Zealand from Dunedin to Auckland, the flight safety video was done by the captain and the coach of the All Blacks and everything on the plane was about the All Blacks, including pictures of the players on the coffee cups. Believe me, they are irresistible! One advertisement said: “we are crazy about rugby.” Well, for a week I was too.

Kia ora.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Financial-Literacy-Center/119369231450239
http://www.ngaitahu.iwi.nz/News/2011/Whai-Rawa-Five-Years-of-Saving-Success.php
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6f3fvUvOiLQ&feature=related

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Advice to rookies

If you’re a regular reader of my blog, you’ll know that I have become a football fan. People change over the course of their life and pick up new hobbies and interests. For me, it’s football. So this Sunday, I watched the Ravens score a crushing victory against the Steelers. It was a beautiful game! I also watched the kickoff last Thursday. Two games in a week; that is pretty good for a rookie fan, no?

In this new season, with rookie players on their field for their first games, there is an abundance of discussions and articles about these newcomers. In the New York Times yesterday, there was an article about finance and financial advice to the rookies. The link to the article “Financial Lessons from Sports Stars’ Mistakes” is at the end of this post.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the statistics about football players mismanaging their money are pretty staggering. The article mentioned several star athletes who have had brushes with bankruptcy: Michael Vick (recently acquired by the Philadelphia Eagles); Bernie Kosar, formerly of the Cleveland Browns; and Mark Brunell of the New York Jets.

Some have argued that the behavior of football players is similar to those who win the lottery. Flushed with large sums of money that come to them suddenly, players squander it and are left with little or nothing a few years out. I do not think that this is a good analogy. One difference between football players and lottery players is that we know the former are very talented people: Who else could do the things they do when they are out in the field? Moreover, these people know discipline; they show up to practice every day. They also know the correlation between efforts and outcome; if one works steadily at something, he will get better. These are great skills that can be applied not only to playing football but also to managing money.

So, why do we see players going bankrupt? One of the reasons why people (including football players) make mistakes is because they lack financial knowledge. This problem can be particularly acute for young, inexperienced people whose highest earnings are concentrated at the beginning of their career. But this is not an impossible problem to fix, and the New York Times article outlined a set of lessons that could be learned from some players’ mistakes.

I have three pieces of advice for rookies. (There is more advice to give, but let me start with this simple list; I will follow up in future posts.)

1) Do not spend it all. The career of football players is short and risky; you want and need to have provisions for the future and for uncertain events. An example? The recent lockout. What would have happened if the lockout had continued? Another example? Even superstars have injuries and/or cannot play for health reasons. Peyton Manning, for example, just had neck surgery.

2) Take it in your hands. Money management is too important and too personal to be delegated entirely to someone else. You are the one who knows your needs, your aversion to or love of risk, your objectives for the future. If you leave it to others to manage your money, chances are they will not make the decisions you had wished for. Even if you seek financial advice, rely on reputable experts and stay involved in the process. After all, it is your future that is at stake here.

3) Be humble about finance. My research repeatedly shows that the majority of people are overconfident about what they know of finance. Four out of five Americans gave themselves high financial knowledge ratings but, when asked questions about basic concepts, they answered incorrectly. And ignorance hurts. Study after study documents that it is those with low financial knowledge who pay more for financial services and who are more likely to end up in financial distress. Do not be afraid to speak up about what you do not know; it is not a weakness, it is a strength, and you will intimidate anyone around you when you admit it. Most people do not have that kind of courage. Do not jump into projects or investments you do not understand well. Tell people around you, “I want to be smart about my money.” Over time, you will be.

When I got my first job as an assistant professor at Dartmouth College about twenty years ago, I showed up in the Human Resources office and was given all of these forms to fill out, requiring me to indicate which of the three pension providers I wanted and how I would allocate my pension money. I remember feeling puzzled that such an important decision would be asked of me without inquiring about my knowledge and whether I needed any help. Throughout the years, I have worked to change that process and, with the collaboration of some great people at Dartmouth’s HR office, there are now programs in place to help new hires. I take a little pride in that.

The NYT article is posted here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/your-money/financial-lessons-from-sports-stars-mistakes-your-money.html?pagewanted=all

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Think big, in a practical way

I left for Italy in mid-August feeling pretty discouraged. Most of the recent discussions I had heard about financial literacy were focused on cost. This is clearly an important concern, but, in practice, when people talk mostly about costs, it often means they are not interested in “buying” it. And while the cost of improving financial literacy is a very legitimate concern, how about the cost of this financial mess we’re in. How about that?

The discussion around some financial education programs was also not a mood booster. Some of the papers I saw presented this summer covered programs in which individuals—often impoverished and with little education—were brought to a classroom and given a few hours of “financial education.” The expectation was that those few hours would transform people into savvy entrepreneurs or investors. And what was the main discussion around this? How much these programs cost!

This dominant concern about cost obscures the fact that we face a very important and challenging problem in need of a solution. But we need to think big; we need creative ideas that can help overcome big barriers. Lack of financial knowledge is not something that can be tackled by bringing the adult population back to a classroom for a lecture or two on financial education. We need to be practical, too, regarding what can be implemented. As my college friend—a successful entrepreneur I get together with every time I return to Italy—put it: "think big, in a practical way."

Being in Italy, with a break from my daily routine, allowed me to focus on big ideas, and I have some recommendations, that are also practical, to at least start the discussion, and I would like to hear from others.

Big Idea #1: TEACH THE YOUNG. Financial literacy needs to be implemented in schools. It is too difficult to reach the adult population and it is hard to do any teaching if there is little or no base to start from. Also, we need people to be financially literate before rather than after they engage in financial transactions. There will and should be costs of educating the young. It is meaningless to mandate financial education without, for example, training the teachers to teach those courses. Mandates do not make people any smarter, but having a well-developed curriculum that is followed by trained teachers might.

Big Idea #2: FOCUS ON WOMEN. Women have low levels of financial literacy (lower than men), but they also know that they lack knowledge. Moreover, they want to be “treated”; in most financial programs I have been involved with or read about, the majority of participants have been women. It is going to be much easier to reach and deliver to a population who is interested in financial literacy. This is a simple truth that has been mostly ignored. There are costs of only thinking about costs!

Big Idea #3: MAKE IT SIMPLE. Some financial decisions are truly complex, but there are universal concepts that are at the basis of most financial decisions and that can and should be explained in very simple ways. I am talking about the power of interest compounding, the effects of inflation, and the benefits of risk diversification. In fact, even this is economic jargon we can get away from. Let’s use plain English and explain these ideas in very simple ways. We can even come up with ways to tell stories to teach the concepts so that even a five-year-old could learn them.

Speaking of five-year-olds and of being practical, I was given the following test to see whether one can think practically. Here it is: How do you put a giraffe into a refrigerator? The answer is at the end of the post, but please do not look before you come up with your own solution. I thought about it for five minutes and came up with a method about as simple as putting a man on the moon. That evening, I saw my little niece Giorgia drawing a picture of the family dog, depicting him with 9 legs and 2 enormous eyes. I thought she would be an ideal person for the giraffe test, so I asked her very innocently: “Giorgia, how do you put a giraffe into a fridge?” She looked up, gave me a big smile, jumped from her chair, and ran to the fridge. Moral: you can never beat the creativity of a five-year old!

Question: How do you put a giraffe into a refrigerator? Answer: You open the door and put the giraffe in.